Adapting to Climate Change: Hypothesis of Hope

"What ICRISAT Thinks" December 2009 
By Director General William D Dar

We live in a warming world. How bad will it get? We can’t say for sure, but it seems clear that the drylands poor will be especially hard-hit. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded in its most recent assessment that “At lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase the risk of hunger."

But even the highly sophisticated models that are cited by the IPCC are uncertain, predicting a range of possible temperature and rainfall trends. Furthermore, the scales at which these models operate — global and regional — are too imprecise to help people whose livelihoods are determined at the levels of the farm, village, and district. How can farmers adapt to a future that is so fuzzy?

Drawing lessons from the past

Rather than betting the future on one uncertain prediction or another, ICRISAT scientists decided to sample across a range of possible futures and draw lessons from broad response patterns, comparing them against the variations in temperature and rainfall that already occur over years in strategic locations across Africa and India. This in-depth analysis was based on the painstaking collection of many thousands of meteorological station measurements by different institutions over the past 30-50 years.

How could such large and complex data sets be handled scientifically? Scientists drew on the power of computer-based climatic and crop production models, built using data gathered during decades of intensive laboratory and field works by a wide range of institutions.

Projecting the future

Two computer simulation models, the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT), found that one of the most important effects of rising temperatures would be to increase the rate of evaporation of water from soils and crops, shortening the length of the growing period (LGP). For example, the mid-point of the curves in the figure illustrate that under average rainfall conditions in Makindu, Kenya (50% probability point) a 3°C rise in temperature would be expected to cause a reduction in LGP of 8%, shortening average LGP from 108 to 101 days. Shorter LGP results in lower grain yield, because the crop has less time to convert sunlight into carbohydrate.

What is especially striking and noteworthy, though is that this 8% reduction pales in comparison to the variation in LGP that farmers already experience due to the wide variation that occurs in rainfall from season to season, causing LGP to vary from well under 80 days to more than 130 days.

The key message of hope that this finding delivers is that the study of how farming systems cope with current rainfall variation is likely to yield important clues for adapting to future climate change.

What are those adaptations, though and how can they be harnessed for the future?

Managing moisture

Since warming will dry out soils more quickly, two strategies to increase soil water storage were modeled using APSIM under Makindu conditions. The practices were i) planting a maize crop on soil formed into ridges across the slope to reduce the runoff of rainfall water, and ii) leaving residues from the previous crop on the soil surface to reduce runoff and evaporation (mulching). The model predicted that these two water management techniques would remarkably improve and stabilize yields relative to the wide climatic variations experienced over the past 50 years. In fact, further model analyses indicate that even with a 3°C temperature rise, mulching would effectively extend LGP beyond the current average of 108 days, to 113 days at this typical location.

Exploiting evolution

Even when water losses are countered, another problem arises. Higher temperatures accelerate the development of plants, causing them to mature too quickly before they’ve fully utilized available water and sunlight to produce grain.

Fortunately though, crops have evolved wide genetic variations in their inherent ‘development clocks’. Based on our germplasm and breeding research combined with model predictions, we are confident that sustained effort will identify varieties whose development cycles are well-matched with the warmer temperatures that farmers will face. In parallel, since extreme temperatures can still cause considerable damage at sensitive growth stages, the search for temperature-resistance genes needs to be intensified.

Countering climate change

As serious as it is, climate change is just one of a host of challenges that threaten to reduce grain yields in the drylands of the future. For example, the impact of a 3°C temperature increase on maize yield is likely to be relatively smaller than the impact of continuing low rates of application of nitrogen fertilizers. This suggests yet another strategy for countering climate change: redouble our efforts to make fertilizer more readily available to poor farmers.

Looking ahead

These hints of hope illustrate how modern science can cut through the fog of uncertainty, complexity, and pessimism on a crucial global issue. Strategic, longer-term research of this type must be strengthened. Computer simulation models must be continually improved. The effects of heat on many different farming system dynamics must be better understood. Precious genetic diversity must be vigorously collected, conserved and characterized. Human capacities must be strengthened in all these areas at national as well as international levels. Conditions for the adoption of adaptive technologies must be fostered.

With your support and partnership, ICRISAT’s Hypothesis of Hope will continue to enrich the insights, options, and actions needed to help the poor to adapt to climate change.

The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) is a non-profit, non-political organization that does innovative agricultural research and capacity building for sustainable development with a wide array of partners across the globe. ICRISAT’s mission is to help empower 600 million poor people to overcome hunger, poverty and a degraded environment in the dry tropics through better agriculture. ICRISAT is supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). www.icrisat.org ICRISAT-Patancheru Patancheru 502 324, Andhra Pradesh, India Tel +91 40 30713071 Fax +91 40 30713074 - With editing

Creative CGIAR. Rich out for the poor - Bill Gates

WASHINGTON DC - Out of Ayn Rand's masterpiece, ATLAS SHRUGGED and, intruding into the business meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, CGIAR held 7-8 December 2009 at the International Monetary Fund Headquarters, he spoke about the poor farmers as a new engine of economic growth. A climate change. The poor we shall not always have with us. A primate change. Katherine Sierra, Chair of the CGIAR, would know that the group will never be the same again.

In essence, Atlas said: "We need the rich creative minds of business working with the poor productive bodies of farmers to design and build a brave new world in the midst of climate change." Audacious, original. The words are mine but the thought is that of the one and only William "Bill" Gates, once CEO of Microsoft. I have been reading his two master pieces, his Davos speech, "A New Approach to Capitalism in the 21st Century" (click to see complete text at microsoft.com), and his Washington statement at the CGIAR business meeting, "For a sustainable & resilient global agriculture - Bill Gates" (americanchronicle.com). Short of a hypertext with a hyperlink, I have connected the two declarations together even as they are separated by almost 2 years. The creative force behind Microsoft is now behind the plow.

“Agriculture will play a central role in addressing most challenges that the international community faces today,” says Carlos Perez del Castillo, newly appointed Chair of the Consortium Board of the CGIAR. Bill Gates would qualify that to say (my underlining):

(The Foundation) believes that a sustainable and resilient global agriculture R&D system, focused on smallholder productivity growth, is absolutely crucial for achieving the goal of hunger and poverty reduction in the developing world.

We must focus on the poor farmers, Bill Gates says, as they are the key to world agriculture. The Harvard dropout is now the aggie scholar. With his creative capitalism, the software is now behind the hardware. In the 1980s, he wanted "a computer on every desk in every home." Microsoft is software. "From a very young age, I thought software was magical," he tells Peter Jennings of ABC (abcnews.go.com). The PC world has been listening, so it has made Microsoft a castle of legends, with 60% of homes in the US now with PCs. As it were, he now wants a magic pot of peas in every poor home. Is the rest of the rich world listening?

I didn't give Bill Gates credit for innovation until he retired from Microsoft and he came up with entirely new software, a novel capitalist tool: creative capitalism. You can't buy it - you have to buy into it. Great! As far as I know, I'm the first and probably the only one saying his Davos speech in January 2008 and his Washington statement in December 2009 are linked in time and meaning much more than Word 2007 is linked to PowerPoint 2007 in the suite called Microsoft Office 2007. There are 2,756 words in the Davos speech and 574 words in the Washington statement, including titles. Assuming that you have read both manuscripts word for word, which I doubt, afterwards you have to read between the lines. That needs practice.

You have to intuit, otherwise, you will miss the capitalist boat. Somebody else has gone ahead and given creative capitalism a run for its money. Says Declan McCullagh, the Chief Political Correspondent of CNET News.com (25 January 2008, news.cnet.com): "Gates misses the point on 'creative capitalism'." He doesn't know what he's talking about? McCullagh says creative capitalism is simply a new name for an old idea: "corporate social responsibility" or "social caring." Well, I have bad news for CNET News.com: As it turns out, McCullagh is the one who doesn't know what he's talking about.

Creative capitalism, as Heidi Benson puts it (sfgate.com), is capitalism being “a driver for social change” and not simply doing corporate good; or, as Michael Kinsley puts it, “It’s using the idea of self-interest turning into the general interest.” The corporate good becoming the social good. “Creative capitalism” is a new name for a new idea.

In his opening paragraph in the Davos speech, after saying he is going to make "a big career change" and retire as Chairman of Microsoft, he says, "Also, I'm learning how to give money away." He's a practicing Christian, isn't he? He not only memorizes but also practices the dictum that of those who have more, more are expected of them.

And now, with creative capitalism, we can expect more from those who have less.

Climate change happens years before and creative capitalism happens months before the Wall Street cash crash. Then US President Barack Obama comes out with his bailout plan. I hope it helps. From climate change, there can be no bailout plan; we cannot buy our way out - it would be too late. You can buy carbon credits, even on credit, but you cannot buy time. Now the capitalists that McCullagh is trying to defend have no choice: Do it or else! Climate change leaves them no choice. Bill Gates says, unfortunately "climate change will have the biggest effect on people who have done the least to cause it." And there are billions of them. (You don't believe in climate change? Go jump in the lake - and email me, if you can, that it isn't warmer.)

On the same day that McCullagh opens his big mouth to make Bill Gates' seem little, Michael Kanellos, Editor at Large of CNET News.com, says "On 'creative capitalism,' Gates gets it" (25 January 2008, news.cnet.com). I like Kanellos for being frank. He mentions the rewards of creative capitalism: if not profit, recognition and enjoyment. It cannot buy you the farm, but it can buy you someone’s wolf's ticket. He then quotes a most important part of Bill Gates' Davos speech:

This kind of creative capitalism matches business expertise with needs in the developing world to find markets that are already there, but are untapped. Sometimes market forces fail to make an impact in developing countries not because there's no demand, or even because money is lacking, but because we don't spend enough time studying the needs and requirements of that market.

Business expertise, demand, money, needs, and markets untapped - The business experts fail in or fear to tread on the Third World because they fail to study the resources and requirements of those markets; they only succeed in studying the resources and requirements of their businesses.

"Climate change will have the biggest effect on people who have done the least to cause it," Bill Gates says in Davos. "In particular the billion people who live on less than a dollar a day." So we must harness the power, "the genius of capitalism" so that "it benefits everyone," the poor included. In certain cases, the profit motive will have to give way to the prophet motive. The Protestant Ethic will have to give way to what I shall call and define here as The Christian Ethic: "As you did it to one of the least of my brethren, you did it to me."

Bill Gates says:

I like to call this idea creative capitalism, an approach where governments, businesses, and nonprofits work together to stretch the reach of market forces so that more people can make a profit, or gain recognition, doing work that eases the world's inequities.

Too many words for me; I’d like to summarize creative capitalism in 12 simple words:
Meeting the needs of the poor as market, for business or pleasure.

With the threat of global warming beyond tolerance, what we need is not simple corporate social responsibility. Whether the capitalists like it or not, this is where the genius of capitalism is being tested, in the crucible of climate change. We don't want history to record that Atlas shrugged in 2008 - we may not be able to write that history. The rich cannot ignore the billions of poor even if they don't want to look. I have found the great leveler, and it's called climate change.

In the Washington statement, Bill Gates announces "the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation's intention to formally join the CGIAR" even before the "programmatic focus, funding arrangements, and membership issues" are discussed. From the world’s biggest software company, Bill Gates is buying into the consultative body of the world's biggest partnership for research and development in agriculture, the CGIAR, comprising a total of 15 centers based in different parts of the world:

Africa Rice Center (Benin)
Bioversity International (Rome)
CIAT, Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (Colombia)
CIFOR, Center for International Forestry Research (Indonesia)
CIMMYT, Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maiz y Trigo (Mexico)
CIP, Centro Internacional de la Papa (Peru)
ICARDA, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (Syria)
ICRISAT, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (India)
IFPRI, International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington DC)
IITA, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (Nigeria)
ILRI, International Livestock Research Institute (Kenya)
IRRI, International Rice Research Institute (Philippines)
IWMI, International Water Management Institute (Sri Lanka)
World Agroforestry Centre (Kenya)
WorldFish Center (Malaysia)

Now retired, Bill Gates wants to be where the inaction is. The world has largely ignored its better half; the Wall Street crash signaled that the cash crop is as important as the cash drop, if not more so.

The Bill Gates I know, starting more than 20 years ago from my reading second-hand PC magazines, is the antithesis of John Galt in Ayn Rand's monumental novel Atlas Shrugged (1957); instead of striking out, Bill Gates wants to apply creative capitalist intelligence onto the twin problems at hand: poverty and climate change. Nobody ever thought of that before. Rich reaching out for the poor to generate more progress and not more poverty, to create a common bounty and not a singular mendicancy. We are all in this together. The poor deserve more, the rich no less.

The CGIAR System may or may not be larger than Microsoft when Bill Gates turned it around on its own axis in 1995 to confront the challenge of the Internet that it had largely ignored previously; consequently, Microsoft captured the Windows- (PC-) based billion-dollar worldwide market, and almost the Internet; and for decades he was the world’s richest man. Bill Gates is not only a major survivor; he is a magnificent planner and victor.

Now, the plot thickens!

In its own press release, the news is that the CGIAR Goliath has challenged himself:
To enhance the organization's ability to mobilize science for overcoming poverty and hunger and achieving ecosystem resilience in developing countries. The agreed reforms should help boost funding for priority research areas, simplify organizational structures, reduce transaction costs and give greater emphasis to development results.

Right! Get rid of the heavy armor and get down to brass tacks.

I single out the two most important words in the announcement: "Boost funding." You can't work out external change with an internal budget on a string, except if you're a software genius. On this note, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has committed to the CGIAR some $400 million for the next 5 years, or $80 million a year, which comes down to $1.54 million a week. It can't get any better than that! Bill Gates has indeed learned how to give away money.

And he has thought about how to spend all that money. In the Davos speech and in TIME, he gives examples of real-life, working creative capitalism:

(1) As "a way to bring technology to people who don't have access," Microsoft has donated more than $3 billion in cash and software.

(2) When Microsoft people "show how to use technology to create solutions," they have the greatest impact.

(3) A Dutch company shares the rights to a cholera vaccine in Vietnam and brings down the cost to less than $1 a dose, including delivery and cost of an immunization campaign.

(4) The US FDA gives a priority review for another drug of your company if you develop a new drug for a neglected disease like malaria or TV (Bill Gates, 31 July 2008, time.com).

(5) Another approach is to find ways to create methods for information to serve a wider circle of people.

(6) Governments can create market incentives for business to help the poor improve their lives, by setting policy and disbursing funds.

(7) The Fast Company (a magazine) offers awards for what it calls "social capitalism."

That is all market-driven, Bill Gates says, demand-driven. For people who have been left out of the global economy. Creative capitalism focuses on "what your company does best," so much so that "it takes the brainpower that makes life better for the richest, and dedicates it to improving the lives of everyone else."

Since I am more familiar with ICRISAT than any other CGIAR center, I shall now proceed to look at what this India-based institute under the leadership of Director General William Dar has done in the name of creative capitalism, in fact if not in name:

(1) Access: ICRISAT has donated to countries like the Philippines seeds of improved crops like sweet sorghum and peanut (groundnut) for location testing and seed production.

(2) Solutions: With its Adarsha watershed model, ICRISAT is showing the world how old technology can create new solutions to old/new problems of water scarcity.

(3) Sharing costs: With its Agri-Business Incubator, ICRISAT shares the cost of developing businesses and products with the poor as markets.

(4)Neglected area: For farmers who can hardly afford fertilizers, ICRISAT has come up with what it calls microdosing: 6 grams per hill, so small they have to measure it with a bottle cap.

(5)Knowledge: ICRISAT has nurtured its award-winning system of information sharing called Virtual Academy for the Semi-Arid Tropics, VASAT. The system is actively involved, among others, in information leadership among women volunteers in Addakal, Andhra Pradesh and training in drought preparedness among youth. VASAT is now being modeled in the Philippines (as the Open Academy for Philippine Agriculture), and Afghanistan.

(6) Government as ally: The national and local governments of India have been quite proactive and reactive in formulating policies as well as in developing, assisting and funding ICRISAT-partnered projects for its target clienteles in the semi-arid tropics.

(7) Awards: I suggest that through its Agri-Science Park, following Bill Gates' exhortation, ICRISAT begin to encourage innovation by itself offering awards for social capitalism directly addressing the needs of the poor.

Going back to Bill Gates, this is his challenge to the CGIAR's own challenge to itself in partnership "to tackle hunger, poverty and climate change:"

We believe the reform process should lead (the CGIAR) centers back to their comparative advantage and empower them to deliver high-quality research and technological innovations. We believe that region- and country-specific technology adaptation and dissemination activities ought to be led by National Partners and that the centers ought to work in close partnership with them.

Thinking globally and thinking locally, to me, these words stand out: comparative advantage, empower, research, technological innovations, adaptation and dissemination. I note ever so gladly that the activities, whatever they are, are "to be led by National Partners." Bill Gates proposes, CGIAR disposes. What do the poor want? What do they need? From faraway Manila where I sit thousands of miles away from either India or Washington DC, the leadership of projects will be a bone of contention - or a bone of contentment - depending on whether the CGIAR will or will not "spend enough time studying the needs and requirements of its market" even as it comes out with any number of innovations.

Having been a worldwide reader and having worked within the most densely populated PhD universe on Planet Earth, the University of the Philippines Los Baños, for the last 34 years, I can easily say myself that half the world's scientists are not driven - they push. That effectively eliminates the poor who cannot afford the technology, or cannot articulate their demand for something else entirely. Supply-push vs demand-pull. The pushers have been consistently pushing the supply of their discoveries and not been driven to discover the demand. Is science our salvation or not? This half neglect of science helps explain why is it that while we have always Christ with us, also we have always the poor.

Creative capitalism is out to change that; if inadvertently, Bill Gates is out to reform the CGIAR even as it reforms itself. "The end-result of the reform," he says, "ought to be a CGIAR system that can once again attract 'the best and the brightest' scientists to devote their careers to the cause of improving developing-country agriculture," focused on "the poor producers and consumers across the developing world."

I love it when everything comes together for the good of those who love the poor. This is the climate change I’d like to see enveloping the whole creative CGIAR.

Agriculture calling Copenhagen

William D Dar
Director-General of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

At the world leaders’ meeting in Copenhagen, it is imperative that governments pledge to adopt up-to-date technologies to boost food production as well as outweigh the negative impacts of climate change. Nothing less is expected of leaders.

A clear signal that agriculture urgently needs attention is that India, the second-biggest producer and consumer of rice, may have to import 2 million tonnes to shore up 2010 supplies. If this happens, it would be the first time in over two decades that the country imports the grain. Though the government has assured that there is enough stock of rice, it has kept the import option open for subsequent review. Thanks to a severe drought, the summer-sown crop harvest could fall 18 per cent to 69.45 million tonnes compared with the previous year. The monsoon rainfall this year was 23 per cent below normal — the worst since 1972. Next came floods, which further damaged crops.

In the same way, recent storms in Philippines destroyed 1.3 million tons of rice and the southeast Asian country may have to buy a record 2.45 million tons before the end of the year.

The price of rice

Just the news that both India and the Philippines could import huge quantities has swollen the price of rice. Prices will further jack up should Thailand and Vietnam, the world’s largest rice exporters, decide to keep their stocks rather than export them. Pulses in India cost higher every day. Some varieties have crossed the Rs. 100 a kilo mark, putting it out of reach for several Indians.

Last year food scarcity set off riots from Haiti to Egypt. Fresh unrest looms large over developing nations if food costs shoot up. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), food prices in 31 poor countries remain stubbornly high and more than one billion people have to go hungry every day. FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf rightly says that the hunger crisis — affecting one sixth of all of humanity — poses a serious risk for world peace and security.

The demand for food

Keeping pace with a growing world population is not easy for farmers. As demand for food increases, they struggle to extract more crops from each acre of land. Farmers who practice rainfed agriculture in the semi-arid and dry tropics are especially vulnerable as rains here are erratic, soil fertility is poor and crop pests abound. Despite the high risks, rainfed agriculture is practiced on 80 per cent of the world’s farm area, and generates almost 70 per cent of the world’s staple foods. The drylands are home to more than 2 billion people. Of these, 1.5 billion depend on agriculture for a living with670 million comprising the poorest of the poor. Sixty five percent of India is semi-arid.

The threat of climate change

Adding to the conundrum is a progressively warming world. Climate change is expected to expand drylands by 11 per cent and this will increase the frequency and severity of droughts across the globe. Unsurprisingly, crop productivity is expected to decline.

Here’s my point: Countries in semi-arid tropics need to be in a better position to feed their own people. They need to grow more food for themselves. New policies that push investment into agricultural productivity and increase farmers’ access to food markets are essential.

Why? First, food self-sufficiency would prevent undue pressure on the international grain trade. It would check wild fluctuations in global prices and avert panic buying in an already thin market.

Second, do we really want to ignore 670 million poor people who not only earn a living from farming but also have to produce the bulk of food? When agriculture is hit, broader economy-wide impacts may also arise. A case in hand is the Kenyan drought of 1998-1999. According to a recently launched Met Office report commissioned by Barclays, the Kenyan drought caused an overall loss amounting to 16% of GDP, but around 85% of this was incurred through foregone hydropower and falls in industrial production and only 15% due to agriculture.

The help from science

ICRISAT scientists have developed farming systems resilient to shocks, buffering crucial resources like water and nutrients, and adapting crops to warmer temperatures and new pest patterns. Changing crop varieties and efficient irrigation can indeed help mitigate risk in the agriculture sector.

We have proven innovations in crop, soil and water management that farmers could quickly deploy in these times of crises. For example, we can help farmers produce more food with less water. Also, ICRISAT-developed pearl millet hybrids can produce seeds even under very hot temperatures and improved sorghum lines are capable of giving good yields even in harsh conditions. In the nutrient-starved soils of sub-Saharan Africa, ICRISAT helps increase agricultural productivity with fertilizer microdosing, which ensures that the right quantity of scarce fertilizer is given to the crop at the right time.

Yet another powerful tool is the integrated watershed management: building micro-irrigation structures advantageously located in the trail of runoff rainwater that would otherwise have just gone down the drain. This advanced watershed system, a model of which ICRISAT set up in Kothapally village of Ranga Reddy district in Andhra Pradesh, uses modern science tools, including GIS, satellite data, and remote sensing for maximum efficiency. Advanced watershed systems combine training farmers about high-yield seed varieties, different cropping patterns, and other skills including manufacturing green manure.

The agenda

Agriculture and food security should be high on international agenda. The G8 rich countries have promised to increase spending on agricultural development by $20 billion over the next three years. While this is commendable, the amount is still woefully less than the $44 billion that FAO estimates will be needed each year to end malnutrition. Also, rich countries have to match their words with action.

But developing countries also need to get their house in order. A paradigm shift from instating makeshift measures during droughts and floods to long-term agricultural solutions needs to come about. Governments need to increase spend on agri-science research and rural infrastructure including roads. Our farmers need better facilities to make them less dependent on erratic rains. To be exact they need superior training, technology and marketing opportunities. These will make farming a profitable enterprise for our smallholder farmers.

Agri-entrepreneurs need to be encouraged by helping them tap into a pool of commercial technologies. This would in turn help farmers access innovative and improved farming systems through small and micro enterprises. Policies could help boost local agricultural production by speeding up irrigation investments, and subsidizing farm implements and high-yield seeds. At state-sponsored workshops farmers can learn how best to protect crops during droughts. Also, improve the linkages between farmers and markets.

To tide over the agrarian crisis, smallholder farmers need to be part of the solution. Access to technology, markets and financial funding will help them not only produce more food but also get profitable returns. Nothing less is expected of farmers.

Designer Crop. SSI Sugarcane & Copenhagen Calls

HYDERABAD - All roads lead to Copenhagen this week but, Robert Frost-like, I have decided to take the road less travelled by, because I want to make a difference. So, from India, I'd like to offer one crop as model for all Copenhagen crops from now on: For all crops must from today relate to the best of Copenhagen, or else remain anti-climate change action.

Copenhagen! You have heard from 64 aggie scientists and leaders their plea, "Food Security and Climate Change: Call for Commitment and Preparation" (you can find their names if you click that link, at americanchronicle.com). They are telling you that millions of poor farmers must learn to adapt to the changing climate; scientists must teach them many how-tos; science must help them mitigate much of the adverse impacts; and the Copenhagen Treaty must advocate for them.

Copenhagen! If not the whole of agriculture, I am personally asking you to just consider one input of agriculture, the non-traditional, out-of-the-box Designer Crop: SSI Sugarcane. Sweet Revelation. Sugarcane, with which India is #2 in the world.

This species is not just your ordinary Saccharum officinarum but your noble cane, the one that has been called by many other name but is just as sweet:
Arabic qassab es sukkar
Bengali aankha
Chinese hong gan zhe
Danish suikerror
Dutch sukerriet
Finnish sukenruoko
French canne a sucre
German zuckerrohr
Hebrew kaneh
Hindi sakhara
Ilocano unas
Indonesian tebu
Italian canna da zucchero
Japanese satou kibi
Khmer ampeu
Korean sa t'ang su su
Laotian o:yz
Malay tebu
Nepalese sahacar
Norwegian sukkerror
Portuguese cana de assucar
Punjabi gacnaa
Russian trostnik sakhamyi
Sanskrit Ikshava
Spanish cana de azucar
Swedish sukkerror
Sundanese tiwu
Tagalog tubo
Tamil kaarumbu
Thai oi
Urdu gannaa
Vietnamese cay mia.
Except for the Ilocano entry, which is from me, this list is from the University of Melbourne (plantnames.unimelb.edu.au).

Sugar from sugarcane is honey without the sting. SSI Sugarcane, I did call it, a discovery name. Despite a long tradition and a large area planted to the crop (4 million hectares), India's sugarcane average productivity has remained low. So we find this old, tired crop that a team has re-created in India, via the ICRISAT-WWF Project called "Producing More Food Grain with Less Water: Promoting Farm-Based Methods to Improve Water Productivity," the one with which they came out with the Sustainable Sugarcane Initiative, SSI. The team members came from the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, ICRISAT and the World Wide Fund, WWF, the project based near Hyderabad, at the campus of ICRISAT in Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh. In March this year, the partnership came out with the SSI Training Manual for improving sugarcane cultivation in India, and it's rich, very rich. In fact it's the richest manual for sugarcane that I've seen. And this time, I dare say:

What's good for India is good for the world.

I'm speaking as a not-so-poor farmer's son, worldwide reader, creative writer in science, indefatigable blogger, licensed teacher, and proud aggie graduate from the University of the Philippines' College of Agriculture, UPCA in Los Baños, Laguna, some 60 km south of Manila. UPCA has since graduated to become UP Los Baños, but it no longer has a BS Sugar Tech degree, which is strange because in Laguna itself and nearby Batangas Province, we have sugarcane plantations. It must have been that while UP Los Baños had always been pro-poor, it finally decided that sugarcane was not a poor man's crop. That was poor thinking.

Copenhagen, it's not perfect, but the SSI sugarcane manual coming from India is as bright as can be - eclectic, pioneering, bold and smart in meeting the need for global warming action through the practice of agriculture that answers the needs of farmers.

I've called the SSI sugarcane growing system neo-agriculture (for more details, see my "Sweet Revolution, 2009! SSI gives birth to Neo-Agriculture," americanchronicle.com). Today, I want to designate the sugarcane crop grown the SSI way as Designer Crop, as I realize that it is a crop that has been designed to save the farmer 7 things:
(1) water
(2) seeds
(3) chemical fertilizer
(4) invasions by pests
(5) planting times
(6) croppings
(7) high cost of learning.

With apologies to Stephen Covey and his bestselling book, "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People," which has sold more than 15 million copies (shopping.yahoo.com.au), I will now discuss my own list of habits based on the SSI training manual and using the SSI sugarcane as model crop for Copenhagen:

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Farmers

(1) Saving on water.
Deducting the cost of precious drops of water that would otherwise be wasted. Under SSI, you are instructed to scrimp on irrigation by a technique so simple why didn't you think of it before!? Alternate furrow irrigation - you irrigate every other furrow; by that, you can expect to save 50% on water. Otherwise, sugarcane gobbles water. ICRISAT has another water-saving technique, the African Market Garden, a low-pressure drip irrigation system developed with the support of the International Program for Arid Land Crops, IPALAC; this is designed to save you 80% on water. You better believe it!

(2) Saving on seeds.
Deducting the cost and handling of unnecessary materials. Under SSI, you need only to prepare single-budded seeds (setts) and grow them in the nursery, in trays filled with coconut coir, an inexpensive water-holding growing medium. Instead of the usual 16,000, you need only plant 5,000 setts, so you save about 75% on seeds.

(3) Saving on chemical fertilizer.
Deducting the cost of greenhouse gas emission arising from the manufacture of fertilizer. Under SSI, you need only to buy inexpensive organic fertilizer, or make your own compost. I like Edward H Faulkner's idea of trash farming with which weeds, crop refuse and green manure are incorporated with the topsoil as organic matter and mulch (David Kupfer, 2001, organicanews.com), which in fact becomes your compost pile already in place. You can also try what ICRISAT calls microdosing, the 3-finger-pinch or beer-cap fertilizer technique, which has been successfully used in Africa, for instance increasing millet yield by 70% on the average. Director General William Dar of ICRISAT tells us microdosing has been successfully tried by now by more than 12,000 farmers in Africa (Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali) with the assistance of African Development Bank, BMZ/GTZ, CORAF, FAO, TSBF-CIAT, USAID, and the University of Hohenheim / University of Kassel.

(4) Saving on invasions by pests.
Deducting the cost of chemical pest control and, therefore, minus greenhouse gas emission. Under SSI, you are instructed not to depend highly on chemical pesticides and weedicides. Instead, you should try biocontrol. For instance, release the Sturmiopsis parasite for early shoot borer control, Trichogramma chilonis for internode borers, and Isotima jaensis for top borer. Weeds are also pests - trash-mulching will save you the expense and energy necessary for chemical weed control.

(5) Saving on planting times.
Deducting the energies for repeated land preparations. Under SSI, you are advised to practice ratooning, or after the plant crop to cut off the stubbles just above ground level, using a sharp blade to make clean cuts and faster work. Other farmers can only do 2 ratoon crops; following SSI advice, you may be able to do up to 6 ratoons and expect high yield each time.

(6) Saving on croppings.
Deducting the multiple risks of monoculture. Under SSI, you are encouraged to practice intercropping. Since you plant the setts under wider spacing between rows and hills, you can very well intercrop potato, wheat, cowpea, bean, chickpea, green gram, watermelon, and many other crops with sugarcane. The intercrops will also help you control up to 60% of the weeds at the initial stage because the denser canopy deprives the weeds of sunlight, that energy for photosynthesis that all green plants need for growth. And you have the extra incomes from your intercrops.

(7) Saving on high cost of learning.
Deducting the costs of mistakes. The SSI manual was produced after extensive research and verification by the ICRISAT-WWF project team and with inputs from well-known sugarcane farmers, experts, institutes, agencies, as well as based on personal experiences of the project staff. They have learned from their own mistakes; with the manual, you already have learned, and you can avoid their nameless mistakes.

7 times Saving! Those are The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Farmers.

With all that risk reduction and those savings in costs, and with a 50% higher yield each time, you get what you deserve: a higher net income. SSI sugarcane makes farming a very good investment package, indeed.

So, to avoid raising trouble, in raising cane, cultivate the 7 SSI Habits!

So, Copenhagen, tell the farmers to grow the Designer Crop, SSI sugarcane - using less chemical fertilizers and more organic matter, using less pesticides and more biocontrol methods, using less water and more water-conserving methods, and using the ratoon crop more than twice. It's good for the environment; it's good for you; it's good for us. In fact, it's excellent.

Copenhagen! Do you dare to ignore Agriculture, the Mother of Industry? I dare you to ignore The Designer Crop, the mother of many industries. May I remind you that this is the crop that is the main source of sweetness in all tropics and subtropics, grown in 16 million hectares in 80 countries, with Asia as the largest grower followed by Europe (ikisan.com). Out of the Horn of Plenty comes syrup, jaggery, molasses, fodder yeast, yeast for humans, baker's yeast, alpha-amylase, wax, rum, glucose, sorbitol, fuel for engines, liqueur, preservative for fruit and meat, citric acid, ethyl alcohol, lactic acid, oxalic acid, monosodium glutamate, lysine, acetone, polystyrene, polyethylene, even synthetic rubber (pakissan.com); paper, cardboard, mulch, compost, animal feed, fuel for the kitchen; and folk remedies for various complaints: arthritis, bedsores, boils, cancers, colds, cough, diarrhea, dysentery, fever, hiccups, inflammation, laryngitis, opacity, sores, sore throat, tumors and wounds (hort.purdue.edu).

Copenhagen, I offer you the SSI sugarcane as the model climate crop for the world: wallet-conscious on water, stingy on seeds, miser on fertilizer, and yet plentiful in yield and abundant in income. Copenhagen, you must signify reduced energy as input, and SSI sugarcane agriculture can show anyone multiple ways to reduce energy. Those who have eyes, see.

Why sugarcane? It's a crop familiar to all peoples. It's for both the poor and rich farmers. An SSI sugarcane village economy can be characterized thus: Decreasing seeds, water, fertilizer; increasing work opportunities, labor productivity; and multiplying effects of sugar as it goes into numberless products. Vibrant village life.

Copenhagen, I am convinced that as a talking point, an SSI sugarcane system has the appropriate networked focus on sustainability, components all for one, one for all: crop, products, energies, people, and environment. That, Copenhagen, is as bright as you can be, if you're smart enough.

Be a Hero to Someone

The speaker being always innovative, this is the Loyalty Day speech on 30 November 2009 at ICRISAT-Patancheru in Andhra Pradesh, India by Director General of ICRISAT William D Dar. A prose poem, it is a short happy tale of what has happened to ICRISAT; it is also a call for more greatness.

Dr Ragnhild Sohlberg, Former Chair, ICRISAT Governing Board and our chief guest today, honored awardees, MG and RC members and Team ICRISAT, good morning and welcome to our 37th anniversary celebrations!

Today, I would like to dedicate a poem in free verse to TEAM ICRISAT and all our champions like Ragnhild Sohlberg and express my thanks to all those who have made ICRISAT what it is today.

When the poor farmer in the SAT sits down to eat his roti and dhal, he says thanks in his prayer.
And as the wheel of life turns, he knows he has a hero who has changed his life!

He thinks of seeds, better varieties, new methods, and the marketplace.

He thinks of science and sees a human face, that of the one who put more food on his plate, more fruits in his plants, more money in his pocket.

Little does he know that his hero had been through depressing times himself.

His hero had despaired of ever rising above his discouraging status in life, not seeing how his few successes could be more meaningful to himself and others.

Then someone came along who knew how to follow and knew how to lead, and they called him Servant Leader.

This someone saw people as themselves and as a Team, and he called them TEAM ICRISAT.

And he showed the Team how to believe in themselves, how to cherish each other, how to think together.

He taught the Team how to make a path where there was none, and leave a trail.

The poor farmer of the SAT sits, eats his roti and dhal, and thinks of the times the Team talked in strange words, and smiles. He feels good.

The Captain showed the Team how to produce more variety in their crops, and taught them what they already knew in their head, biodiversity.

The Captain made them see how they could grow more crops, harvest more, earn more, and taught them what they had already seen with their eyes, crop diversification.

And the Team explored the complexities of modern science inside and outside the laboratory, of sustainable natural resource management, even while strengthening policies, and innovating along the way.

The Team exulted when novel things began to show – hybrid Pigeonpea, HHB 67 Improved, ICGV 91114, sweet sorghum for ethanol, guinea race sorghum hybrids and climate ready cultivars.

The Team ventured more and reached out more, went out consolidating and regionalizing, creating impacts in Asia and Africa.

And the Team realized that the wheel had turned and the shackles of traditional thinking had been broken.

The Team saw that they had created a new ICRISAT, financially sound and rejuvenated.

Ready to face the rising storm that rages in the SAT.

The poor farmer in the SAT sits, eats his roti and dhal, and says thanks in silence.
He knows in his heart that the Team is watching over him, even if they are hidden.

TEAM ICRISAT! This is your Captain speaking. Don't forget the hidden hero inside you. Don't forget to look out for more of the hidden potential.

Be the hero for more of the ones in need. Be the hero for more people in the SAT!

Promoting Innovations, Promoting Growth

Original title: "Promoting Innovations for Efficient and Equitable Agricultural Growth." Presidential Address by William D Dar, Director General of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) at the launch program of "Handholding and Mentoring of BPD units of NARS," 25th November 2009, ICRISAT-Patancheru, India. With editing

Padmashree Anil K Gupta, Prof, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, & Executive Vice-Chair, National Innovation Foundation; Mr HK Mittal, Advisor & Head, National Science & Technology Entrepreneurship Development Board, Department of Science and Technology, Government of India; Dr Yaduraju, National Coordinator, Component-1, NAIP-ICAR; Vice Chancellors of universities, Directors of ICAR Institutes, ICRISAT scientists, ladies and gentlemen, good morning.

I would like to welcome all of you to the launch of the Network of Indian Agri-Business Incubators, a new initiative of ICRISAT’s Agri-Business Incubator (ABI) being supported by the National Agriculture Innovation Program of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).

ABI-ICRISAT is well positioned to mentor this endeavor wherein we have established our leadership globally. ABI-ICRISAT has been awarded nationally and internationally as the best incubator in recent years. Thanks to the Department of Science and Technology for their trust and continuing support.

How will this initiative be useful, you may ask?

The whole world is seriously concerned with the challenges posed by demands of a burgeoning population, declining global food stocks, skyrocketing food prices, deteriorating production environments and the growing menace of global climate change. These elements converge into a rising global storm that threatens the livelihoods of the poor.

Agriculture in India accounts for about 18% of the gross domestic product and supports nearly 58% of the total working population in terms of employment. Foodgrain production increased significantly from 50 million tonnes during 1950-51 to a record of 230.7 million tonnes in 2007-08.

But since the country’s population is projected to grow to 1.3 billion by 2025, we will need to produce about 320 million tonnes of foodgrains by then. This implies more pressure on our existing and already scarce and degraded land, soil and water resources.

The slowdown in the agriculture sector can be addressed by enhancing agricultural production and productivity, increasing farm income, accelerating agricultural growth and conserving natural resources. In this context, innovations to improve efficiency, equity and the environment are very crucial.

Innovation is about translating ideas into value-added products and services. This requires versatility of attitude and willingness to adopt and welcome unprecedented changes on the part of all stakeholders involved: individuals, organizations and society.

Innovation is the process of creating and putting into use combinations of knowledge from many different sources. It may be brand new but usually it involves new combinations of existing knowledge, i.e., small, gradual changes in technology, processing, organizational management etc and/or creative innovations.

Promoting innovations in agriculture requires coordinated support to agricultural research, extension and education, fostering innovation partnerships and linkages along and beyond agricultural value chains, and creating an enabling environment for agricultural development.

Agricultural research is increasingly being done through public-private-farmer alliances that ensure gain to all stakeholders, especially the poor. This, apart from ensuring access to proprietary technologies and processes, maximizes the public goods nature of innovations jointly owned with the private sector.

In this context, incubators play a crucial role in bringing together different stakeholders. Business incubators are programs designed to accelerate the successful development of entrepreneurial companies through an array of business support resources and services, developed and orchestrated by incubator management and offered both in the incubator and through its network of contacts. Successful completion of a business incubation program increases the likelihood of a start-up company building a strong foundation and consequently staying in business in the long run.

ICRISAT’s Agri-Business Incubator is an institutional innovation system that facilitates the "creation of competitive agri-business enterprises through technology development and commercialization to benefit farmers in the semi-arid tropics."

This serves the purpose of leveraging emerging technologies of the developed world to benefit the developing world, and helps realize the potential of new opportunities in agri-innovations, biotechnology, biofuels, seed businesses & farm ventures.

ABI is making efforts to build awareness and motivate innovators to set up Small & Micro Enterprises (SMEs), to utilize local resources and bring together entrepreneurs who are providers of goods and services on the one hand, and various government departments and their agencies who are catalyzing the government’s development efforts, on the other hand.

Facilitating the growth of SMEs and helping entrepreneurs undertake suitable economic activities requires identifying and mapping existing resources and identifying area-wise concentration of different primary produce to develop clusters of activities with swifter growth potential.

It is a challenge for all stakeholders, the scientific community, farmers, extension agencies and the industry to understand the opportunities, and evolve strategies different from those that were adopted in the past in conventional agriculture. While it is important for agri-entrepreneurs to plant their feet firmly and grow, it is equally important to ensure that the small farmer is brought into the picture.

ICRISAT believes that the smallholder farmer holds the key to future food security.

I understand that this programme will involve networking of Agri-Business Incubators across the country to maximize agricultural impacts by encouraging innovators, mobilizing a pool of commercial technologies, and thereby maximizing the benefits to farmers. The Network of Agri Business Incubators will also provide an excellent platform for exchanging ideas, sharing successful experiences, identifying R&D areas, and developing future partnerships.

By helping nurture innovations and entrepreneurship in the field of agriculture, ABI and partners are helping fulfill ICRISAT’s mission of eliminating poverty and improving livelihoods. I know you too will multiply and pursue this noble ideal that will make the world a more equitable place.

I take this opportunity to thank Prof Anil Gupta, Mr Mittal and Dr Yaduraju for having taken the time out to come today. I also congratulate the principal investigators of the newly set up Business Planning Units/Business Incubators.

Finally, I would like to commend the efforts of Team Agri Business Incubator at ICRISAT headed by Dr Kiran Sharma, with Karuppanchetty and the National Agricultural Innovation Program for this wonderful and timely initiative.

Thank you.

HOPE for farmers in Africa and Asia

Original title: "HOPE: The Lifeline of Small Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia." Message given by William D Dar, Director General of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) at the launch meeting of the project Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement (HOPE) of Sorghum and Millets in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, 22 November 2009, Bamako, Mali. With editing

Yilma Kedebe from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, partners and ICRISAT scientists, good morning and welcome to the launch of the project on Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement (HOPE) of Sorghum and Millets in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Dryland areas in West and Central Africa and East and Southern Africa are among the poorest and most food-insecure areas on earth, as measured by the UN’s Human Development Indices. Africa’s children and future are missing out on large potential productivity gains that are possible given their soils, crops and climates. Deep poverty is also rampant in rural dryland areas of South Asia.

A perfect storm, a confluence of crises brought about by climate change, desertification, loss of biodiversity, high-energy demand and an exploding population, also threatens these regions that are particularly vulnerable.

Amidst this bleak scenario, ICRISAT found HOPE that the battle against hunger could be won. The opportunity to better the livelihoods of the poor in these regions has been improved with a grant provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. As Winston Churchill once said, and I quote, “The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty”. Grain yields could potentially be doubled or tripled from their current low levels of about 0.5 to 1 metric ton per hectare in Africa, particularly through strong positive yield synergies between improved crop varieties, fertilizer and other management techniques.

HOPE is a 10-year project and builds on over 30 years of research for development by ICRISAT and a number of partners at national, regional and international levels.

Though the project has six objectives, emphasis during the first four years is on ensuring that technologies developed during the last 30 years and that have either not been disseminated widely or are still “on the shelf” are delivered and increase farmer yields by 30% or more, benefiting 110,000 households in Sub-Saharan Africa and 90,000 households in South Asia through increased food security and incomes.

Major dryland cereals like sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet are the means by which HOPE will provide opportunities to alleviate food insecurity and poverty in ten countries of SSA and four states in India.

Given the lack of adaptive approaches to raise their productivity and expand their markets, dryland farmers are only cultivating crops at a subsistence level, leading to reduced security of food supplies; widespread hunger and malnutrition; loss of economic opportunity; increased dependence of growing urban areas on imported food grains, among others.

With lower production and lower market demand, there is less justification for investment in dryland crops and for the research, development, support services and infrastructure needed to commercialize them. Add to this the prospect of climate change wreaking havoc on an already enfeebled system, and it isn’t difficult to visualize its impacts on the poor.

With the emergence of major new trends towards increasing demand for dryland cereals, poor dryland households need technologies, linkages, and development impetus to harness the “pull” of these growing markets.

The project’s integrated value-chain approach is meant to harness this market “pull”. This is linked to increased production potential from technologies to stimulate the production of sorghum and millets in selected target areas.

By integrating the actors across and within the input-supply, production, sale/storage, and marketing stages of the value chain, the project will capture synergies and reduce transaction costs, hopefully resulting in large increases in yield, production, profitability and competitiveness for dryland cereal crops.

The direct beneficiaries of the project will be poor smallholder farmers and their households as well as others involved in the crop-commodity value chain. Consumers too will benefit through more stable and lower prices and better-quality grain and products for these essential foodstuffs.

In the spirit of true partnership for the poor, the four-year HOPE project supported by an $18 million four-year grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, will be undertaken by 50 partners led by ICRISAT.

The reason for all us participating in this launching meeting is therefore threefold:

(a) To learn from each other the ongoing activities in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia;
(b) To ensure that there are complementarities between projects, and
(c) To determine gaps that our development partners may consider supporting.

I take this opportunity to thank the Foundation for its trust in us and urge all the partners’ active cooperation in this endeavor to improve the lives of the poor in SSA and South Asia.

Thank you and good day.